Brent crude oil futures soared above $79.5 per barrel on Monday, marking a six-week high following a significant 9.1% increase last week. This surge comes in the wake of escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning whether Israel will retaliate to the recent Iranian missile attack. Continued military actions by Israel in Gaza and Lebanon fuel fears of a wider regional conflict.
President Biden has advised against strikes on Iran’s oil fields, urging the consideration of alternative measures. Nonetheless, Iran's oil production, now operating near full capacity, faces potential threats amidst geopolitical uncertainties.
Despite these tensions, **global demand concerns remain, especially with regard to China**. The Chinese government is anticipated to introduce new economic stimulus measures, which could significantly influence oil demand. In response to market dynamics, Saudi Arabia recently adjusted oil prices, raising them for Asian buyers while lowering them for U.S. and European markets.
Since the start of 2024, Brent prices have climbed by $2.81 per barrel, or 3.65%. Analysts forecast Brent crude oil to trade at approximately $72.19 per barrel by the end of this quarter, with a projected price of $77.12 in twelve months, based on global macroeconomic models and forecasts.