Corn futures have surpassed the $4 threshold in Stember, marking a two-month peak driven by supply concerns and a notable increase in demand. Despite the USDA rorting a surprisingly high national average yield of 183.6 bushels per acre, diminished yield estimates from critical states including Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin raise questions about this optimistic perspective. Furthermore, the situation in Ukraine remains precarious due to extended hot and dry spells, leading many experts to view the USDA’s production forecast of 27.2 million metric tons as optimistic.
On the demand front, U.S. corn exports have reached a five-year high over the past four weeks, contributing to upward pressure on prices. Since the start of 2024, corn has seen a decline of 53.83 USd/BU or 11.42%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) tracking this commodity's benchmark market.
Looking ahead, analysts expect corn to stabilize at 394.10 USd/BU by the end of this quarter, with projections suggesting a further decline to 374.13 USd/BU over the next twelve months.