Rice futures recently traded slightly above $15 per hundredweight, close to their lowest levels in more than two weeks as traders evaluated the effects of the Indian government’s recent decision to ease non-basmati rice export restrictions. After a year of export limitations imposed to stabilize domestic prices, India has lifted these restrictions in anticipation of a new crop expected in October and thanks to record stockpiles.
Concurrently, the latest Stember WASDE rort from the U.S. Dartment of Agriculture indicated only modest adjustments to the global rice outlook for the 2024/25 period compared to the previous month. The rort highlighted slight increases in supplies and consumption, coupled with minor declines in trade and stock levels. India’s rice production forecast for 2024/25 was increased by 1 million tons to a record 139 million tons, buoyed by improved monsoon rainfall, particularly in the eastern regions of the country. Global consumption was also raised by 0.5 million tons to 527.5 million tons, although India’s increase was partially offset by reductions in Bangladesh and other nations.
Since the beginning of 2024, rice prices have decreased by $2.47/CWT, marking a 14.08% decline based on trading metrics from contracts for difference (CFDs) that follow the benchmark market for this commodity. Analysts anticipate rice will trade around $14.71/CWT by the end of this quarter, with projections indicating a further drop to approximately $13.88 in the next twelve months.