Soybean prices surpassed $10.5 per bushel in late Stember, reaching an eight-week high fueled by escalating supply risks and robust demand.
Concerns regarding supply are primarily driven by uncertainties surrounding Brazilian planting conditions, slower-than-expected planting progress, and worries of diminishing U.S. harvests due to adverse weather conditions. Further compounding these issues, the latest WASDE rort forecasts a 3-million-bushel decline in U.S. production for the 2024/25 season, tightening supply even further.
On the demand side, impressive export sales and escalating demand from China—which has begun stockpiling in anticipation of potential geopolitical developments—contribute to the upward pressure on prices.
Since the beginning of 2024, soybeans have fallen by 243.56 USD/BU or 18.76%, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Analysts predict soybeans will trade at 964.91 USD/BU by the end of this quarter, with expectations of a further decline to 921.01 USD/BU within the next 12 months.