Cocoa futures have experienced a significant upward movement, exceeding $8,500 per tonne, a peak not seen since early Stember. This surge is largely attributed to escalating concerns over tight supplies in pivotal West African producing nations.
Recent statistics indicate that farmers in the Ivory Coast have shipped only 1.754 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa to ports between October 1 and Stember 22, reflecting a substantial 24.5% decline compared to the same timeframe last year. Concurrently, cocoa stocks monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at US ports have been on a downward trend for the past 15 months, dwindling to a near-historic low of 2,190,684 bags.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) rorted in its August update that a global production shortfall of 462,000 tonnes is anticipated for the 2023-24 season, marking an astonishing eightfold increase from the revised deficit for 2022-23. Despite these supply challenges, the outlook for the forthcoming crop season, spanning from October to March 2025, remains optimistic, largely due to favorable weather conditions.
Since the start of 2024, cocoa prices have risen by 4,281.75 USD/MT, a remarkable 102.04% increase, as evidenced by trading data derived from contracts for difference (CFD) that monitor this benchmark commodity. Analysts project that cocoa could stabilize at around 10,171.77 USD/MT by the close of the quarter, with expectations of escalating to 11,842.57 USD/MT within the next twelve months.