Urea futures have stabilized at approximately $310 per tonne, as uncertainties surrounding supply have been balanced by decreasing prices for natural gas and ammonia. Production in Egypt has been hindered by feedstock issues, while China's withdrawal from the fertilizer export market has led to unprecedented lows in export volumes during the first half of the year. Despite these concerns regarding supply, urea prices are historically low, predominantly due to decreased feedstock costs driven by the lower prices of natural gas and ammonia.
At the same time, urea consumption is experiencing a gradual decline. Notably, India, one of the largest consumers of urea globally, is set to halt imports of the commodity by the end of 2025, prompted by growing apprehensions regarding soil fertility and human health.
Since the start of 2024, urea prices have decreased by $15.25 or 4.61%, according to data from trading contracts that track the benchmark market for this commodity. Analysts anticipate that urea will trade at $301.32 per tonne by the end of this quarter and predict a further drop to $283.52 within the next twelve months.